Cross Sectional Study - COVID 19 response

General chatter, gossip, gab, hot air, rap session, etc.

Postby RiverPatrol » Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:20 pm

L60Boerne wrote:RiverPatrol,

From what I gather here is the difference(s).
a). A normal "flu" doesn't invade the lungs.
b). Once in the lungs it can leave them scarred and thus with less capacity thereafter....how much less depends on the person.
c). A normal "flu" leaves one the same as before once recovered.
d). A normal flu can't be carried for 14-37 days without the carrier knowing it.
e). A normal flu is 4x less contagious than this Chinese flu

Because the Chinese Flu invades the lungs it requires hospitalization in some cases. Because it is/can be widely spread innocently then it has the potential to require a huge number of ventilators all at once.Those left out of the lottery for beds will likely die. Italy is only giving beds to those with the highest probability of survival. That is government run healthcare in a nutshell.

Patrolling from a safe distance,
L60Boerne


Thanks for this. I have not been able to find anything that explains this - I like to have science to corroborate. All I can find is various models for numbers, some extreme, some not. Irregardless I continue to remain cautious.

I just received some information from a highly reliable source within a city government and who is also one of the emergency operations center commanders for the state. He says:
"They have pretty good models from South Korea, Japan, and Italy. The expectations are that there will be a increasing rise in cases for the next 7-10 days and then the shit will hit. Lots of cases for the following 2-3 weeks and then a rapid drop for 2-3 weeks and life back to almost normal. With your compromised immune system, you need to be extra careful now because this is the period where people are catching it with symptoms in about 7-10 days. On the bright side, nothing big to panic on, limit contact, wash hands, all the standards you do. Only other thing is wear gloves when you get the mail, and then put the mail in a plastic bag for 3 days before touching it to let germs die. It will be lots of noise and then die back down for about a month."
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Postby faux40 » Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:03 pm

RiverPatrol wrote:Ok, I'm going to say it: can someone please explain why the extreme measures when the numbers and results don't seem to justify it? Why does this seem to be gross overreacting on all levels?


It's not the hard numbers that are so scary -- it's the exponential growth rate. Well, that and the associated death rate being many times that of the flu! Plus it is brutal on older folks and anybody with pre-existing conditions.

One major factor is that COVID-19, unlike many other viral diseases, it is believed to be infectious to others two to three days before showing any symptoms -- It's infection rate per infected person is expected to be between 1.5 to 3.5% whereas the seasonable flu is about 1.3% (based on info from Asian Development Bank, Lancet, WHO, and the Journal of the American Medical Association as compiled by Statista). This means that we have to identify those who may be exposed and test them before they even have any symptoms -- you can imagine what a massive task this is! But, we aren't testing enough people yet -- This means that there are likely many, many infected and infectious people wandering around -- and until their personal incubation is complete (early evidence puts the time from exposure to symptoms as generally between 2 and 14 days, with an average of 5 days) and their symptoms hit they interact with others and spread it around!

Simply put, without drastic measures, it will snowball -- far, far worse that it is already -- and the small percentage of the sick that need hospital will completely overwhelm our hospital resources.

According to the World Health Organization, there were 1,678 confirmed cases in the US on 10 AM CET 16 March 2020; 38-hours later, at 00:00 CET 18 March 2020, there were 3,536 meaning the confirmed case count doubled in a day and a half. Johns Hopkins University has more current data that shows that as of 7pm tonight, there are 9,345 confirmed cases in the USA. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

We can try quarantine -- China did, Italy did -- and they are really only effective in the short run and in extreme cases. In fact, the Wuhan province recently closed the last of the many emergency hospitals they built to respond to this outbreak -- indicating significant success in reducing the rate of infections. But really, the most effective way to handle something like this is Social Distancing... We're all in this together and to beat it, we gotta work together -- apart! It's pretty simple -- stay 6 or more feet from everyone else and avoid being where multiple people are. The Washington Post put together some basic statistical video-graphic showing how quarantine and social distancing work... Definitely worth a quick peek: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... simulator/

Best thing for any of us to do right now is hide in the garage and work on our beloved Patrols while staying six or more feet from everybody! Also, wash your hands well after just about every activity -- like 20 or more times a day! That alone will lower your risk of infection significantly!
  • Use the toilet -- Wash your hands!
  • Get the mail -- Wash your hands!
  • Eat food -- Wash your hands BEFORE and AFTER!
  • Bored -- Wash your hands!
  • Happy -- Wash your hands!
  • Angry -- Wash your hands!
  • and stop touching your face!

Remember, if you are older and are already battling something like heart disease, diabetes, lung disease or an immune difficency -- You'd best just hide. Really. No contact with anyone... just hide in your garage and play with your Patrol!

Be Safe Everyone!

John
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Postby RiverPatrol » Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:31 pm

I absolutely agree that the real numbers are much higher. Because testing is limited by CDC criteria and kits are limited. That also means that the death ratio is lower than their data model shows. I'm not implying that any of this will make me treat it with a cavalier attitude, I'm one of the ones that has to worry the most about it. I just don't understand the unreasonable panic among the healthy people that are more likely to be less affected.
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Postby plateaucal » Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:22 am

As near as I can tell, L60Boerne and Faux40 have expressed this very well. The "flattening the curve" concept best describes it and the flattening needs to begin before you see the curve. The death ratio likely is lower due to lack of data but it is still far higher than the flu as is,it seems, is the hospitalization rate. Information that I have read regarding contact tracing suggests that it is highly communicable. Those following good hygiene practices and social distancing are probably doing more for their fellow citizens than for themselves. The next few weeks will be telling and I will reassess at that time. We can look to Italy as a giant case study in what not to do.

That being said, the fallout elsewhere is also concerning. The stock market was a house of cards waiting for the first breeze. Then there is the oil shock (at such a convenient time). Too many people live paycheck to paycheck and as well, many investors were caught blindsided. We have elected to shutdown all unnecessary business operations but not a lot of other people have that latitude. That scares me as much as the virus. Is this the beginning of a new recession or worse?

I am with you River. I generally lean towards a more conspiratorial explanation of things and I am still directing my attention that way. But there is a little voice in me that says "Be prepared for the worst, but hope for the best".

So I was supposed to be on a beach in Florida next week for my birthday. :crying-yellow:
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Postby Peter60 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:11 am

Well COVID-19 is hitting Australia. Boarders closed, business shutting down - sometimes to avoid the COVID-19 by working at home and others because there isn't any customers, orders etc.

Our Australian airline QANTAS has pretty much closed down. Planes grounded, staff laid off or told to go on holidays to the end of May. That's 20K people!

Some believe the reaction to closing the boarders comes too late. But its all part of flattening the curve.

The director of critical care at Toowoomba (country Queensland) hospital says: “If 50% of my city gets infected, that’s 75,000 people. If 5% of them need life support (which is the estimate), that’s 3750 people. For 25 beds."

So we are going to self isolate - I expect for several months.

The good news my Patrols are out on a farm - with no one around, so I should make some good progress!
Not sure if I will get there.
Not sure if I will get back.
But I usually do!!!
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Postby L60Boerne » Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:04 am

Greetings,

I understand and agree it is important to identify our sources for our information. My source for lung scaring/lasting effects for survivors comes from doctors reports from Italy. I haven't specifically heard this from any other country. My experience in South Africa in the mid 90s while AIDS raged has left me with a healthy appetite to dig deeper and read between the government lines.

Example - Originally, we were told that young people should feel fairly safe and could expect a mild case because of their youth and general good health. Now we are learning that younger generation fairs better but are far from safe and 20% of the young with the Chinese flu end up in ICU. Why the change? The asian models did not take into account there are far fewer youth there than here. They had fewer cases simply because there are fewer youths within their total population. How did they miss that?

So, when I read first hand warnings from the European doctors I accept it as important unfiltered information.

Patrolling from a distance,
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Postby plateaucal » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:40 am

San Miguel County has issued shelter in place orders for the entire County; with fines or prison time for violators. No one is allowed in or out of the County except for essential services or for continued construction of one of the many multi-million dollar mansions. San Miguel is our neighbor to the South and home of Telluride ski area. I considered it as HIGH risk a couple weeks ago that is why we began avoidance and prepping way early. This is an international destination resort and almost all of the Telluride ski guests travel through our town and supply themselves from our stores. There is a reason why the National Guard deployed there first. The local medical staff says they are sure that they have been treating Covid19 patients for quite a while but could not verify due to lack of tests. Over one-hundred symptomatic people were tested there a couple of days ago at an outdoor facility. Results pending.

Our PPE equipment supplier has sold out of everything. The first responders have purchased every Tyvek suit and P100 respirator filter available. They missed some a few boxes of 2X's which I nabbed. A lot going on behind the scenes but not so much in the news. There is a big shortage of respirators and suits at the hospitals. My daughter is a nurse in Houston and she told me of a local hospital that came up short on gear because the custodial staff sold it all on the black market.

My guess...our County will be next. Our County has already closed all schools and gathering places. My daughter is due to give birth, they may induce soon to keep her out of the hospital during peak time. I am bored as hell. ...maybe I need to start working on my old Saab 95 wagon.

Anyway, thanks to all for your responses. I think that "boots on the ground" intelligence is very useful, if not just interesting, at this time.
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Postby plateaucal » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:55 am

Also, this is probably going to be my only form of social interaction for a few weeks...sorry. Wish I knew some good jokes to share.
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Postby RiverPatrol » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:12 am

This is all good stuff! Yes, boots on the ground information that we can't get from the news.

plateaucal - 6 counties in the Bay area/San Francisco have shelter in place orders. But apparently it is merely a misdemeanor and enforcement was questionable. I have a friend up there, he's been out a couple of times with no repercussions. I always enjoy a reasonable conspiracy theory. I've heard a few, none really work for me. I've got thoughts on the subject.

L60Boerne - I 100% agree about checking your source, and not trusting government info. My impression comes from living through the rabbit hole that is Lyme disease hell. I NEVER trust CDC info, I always look for a better source. Which is why I posed this question, to see what other 'boots on the ground' had to say.

Peter60 - That sounds about like where we almost are. I don't think airlines have shut down but flights are certainly fewer. And it changes daily. In a few days they've gone from cancelling events with more than 250 attendees, to limiting groups to 50, now down to 10. Elderly 65 and over, people who have health issues and immune compromised are ordered to shelter in place. Non-essential businesses are ordered to close, restaurants cannot serve in dining rooms but can do take out - which shuts down many restaurants. All schools closed last week. The Canadian border is closed to all non-essential travel - we supply Canada with too much of what they need to close it entirely. On the Mexican border they are sending back anyone who crosses illegally, which is ironic.

Strange days indeed, and it's going to get stranger. Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy ride. I've got plenty to keep me from getting bored here. This is actually an introvert's dream come true. What, I don't have to socialize?! :lol:
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Postby RiverPatrol » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:14 am

plateaucal wrote:Also, this is probably going to be my only form of social interaction for a few weeks...sorry. Wish I knew some good jokes to share.


When L60Boerne and his daughter were visiting his daughter asked me how many parts there are on a Patrol. I felt inadequate that I was unable to provide a correct answer. Sounds like a good time consuming project for us all here. :D
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Postby plateaucal » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:49 am

Well, distrust of the government is the seed that sprouts most conspiracy theories. :) Science and fact are often co-opted by politics. Sooo, good source material is invaluable.

I recently read Herbert Hoover's journals of the time leading up to and beyond the period of WW2 and the Roosevelt administration (Freedom Betrayed). It gave me a real hollow feeling my gut. But the book provides an excellent perspective on the concept of "problem, solution, reaction" as the government uses it. Is this time any different? The COVID19 situation is the most significant International event since WW2 or 9-11 in my mind. I am watching closely, history is being made.
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Postby RiverPatrol » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:19 am

plateaucal wrote: The COVID19 situation is the most significant International event since WW2 or 9-11 in my mind. I am watching closely, history is being made.


It absolutely is! Only more far reaching globally than WW2.
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Postby mdawg4x4 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:30 pm

We were told we would cease production for two weeks COB today, but that all hourly workers would still be paid for 32hrs per week. The rest of us salaried employees will still report to work. My concern comes in from hearing all those hourly people talking about where they will go and do for the next two weeks. It appears self quarantine is not on their short list, which doesn't help the situation.
Meanwhile the rest of us (~20-30 people) will continue to work out of the same office! And that is just one of the many offices here!
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Postby plateaucal » Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:43 pm

mdawg4x4 wrote:We were told we would cease production for two weeks COB today, but that all hourly workers would still be paid for 32hrs per week. The rest of us salaried employees will still report to work. My concern comes in from hearing all those hourly people talking about where they will go and do for the next two weeks. It appears self quarantine is not on their short list, which doesn't help the situation.
Meanwhile the rest of us (~20-30 people) will continue to work out of the same office! And that is just one of the many offices here!


Man, if I could leave right now I would set a big base camp out in Utah and stay there for weeks. Wishing you the best Mdawg. Stay in touch.
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Postby L60Boerne » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:57 pm

Greetings with GREAT News!

This information is not official but I can offer (offer is not meant to be a confirmation or definitive), from my friends in DC, that 40 patients in the south of France have been cured with the malaria treatment Trump mentioned today.

Furthermore, all six patients in the "test group" here in the states are getting better.

One last point, on January 3rd the WHO (which is dominated by communists) told the world this virus was not contagious and nothing to worry about. It was Tom Cotton from AR that presented evidence to Trump that is was something totally different. Please remember this when he runs for President in five years.

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